Banning the sale of tobacco to young generations could significantly reduce lung cancer mortality

A new study led by the International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC) shows that prohibiting the sale of tobacco to people born between 2006 and 2010 could prevent 1.2 million lung cancer deaths by 2095. This modelling study, using population-level data, is one of the first to evaluate the impact of eliminating tobacco. This new strategy, known as the tobacco-free generation initiative, is part of broader tobacco elimination efforts aimed at drastically reducing smoking rates by phasing out tobacco sales based on birth dates, ultimately preventing smoking among younger generations. Tobacco-free generation initiatives, which are increasingly being explored as part of tobacco endgame strategies, have been implemented in many countries, such as New Zealand, and in various parts of Australia and the USA. The new study, published in The Lancet Public Health, includes 185 countries and draws from the World Health Organization (WHO) Mortality Database and the IARC Cancer Incidence in Five Continents database.

Rey Brandariz J, Rumgay H, Ayo-Yusuf O, Edwards R, Islami F, Liu S, et al.
Estimated impact of a tobacco-elimination strategy on lung-cancer mortality in 185 countries: a population-based birth-cohort simulation study
Lancet Public Health. Published online 4 October 2024;
https://doi.org/10.1016/S2468-2667(24)00185-3

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