The current and future incidence and mortality of gastric cancer in 185 countries, 2020–40: a population-based modelling study

Researchers from the International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC) and collaborators predict that the annual burden of gastric cancer will increase to about 1.8 million new cases and about 1.3 million deaths by 2040, representing increases of about 63% and 66%, respectively, compared with 2020. These estimates are included in a new article on global patterns of gastric cancer occurrence in 2020 and the projected burden of disease in 2040, which has been published in the journal eClinicalMedicine.

The burden of gastric cancer is highest in eastern Asia, and it is the most common cancer type in China, as well as in Bhutan, Cabo Verde, and Tajikistan. An estimated 1.1 million new cases of gastric cancer and 770 000 deaths caused by gastric cancer occurred in 2020, with incidence rates being on average twice as high in males as in females. Men residing in eastern Asian countries such as Japan, Mongolia, and the Republic of Korea had the highest incidence rates in the world, while incidence rates were lowest in Africa.

These new estimates of the future burden of gastric cancer identify regions where gastric cancer requires particular attention in targeted national cancer control initiatives. Primary prevention activities, including eradicating infection with Helicobacter pylori and encouraging behavioural changes such as reducing salt intake, tobacco smoking, obesity, and alcohol consumption, are the key elements of effective cancer control programmes targeting gastric cancer.

Morgan E, Arnold M, Camargo MC, Gini A, Kunzmann AT, Matsuda T, et al.
The current and future incidence and mortality of gastric cancer in 185 countries, 2020–40: a population-based modelling study
eClinicalMedicine, Published online 21 April 2022;
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eclinm.2022.101404

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