Nature or nurture: genetic and environmental predictors of adiposity gain in adults

A new study by scientists from the International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC), in collaboration with researchers from the Girona Biomedical Research Institute (IDIBGI) in Girona, Spain, has found that environmental predictors, such as education level, smoking status, physical activity, and consumption of meat and meat products, could be used to stratify the risk of adiposity gain in both middle-aged men and middle-aged women. This study suggests that environmental predictors can identify European individuals at higher risk of adiposity gain in midlife. Adding genetic susceptibility to adiposity did not improve the predictive ability of the environmental model. The results were published in eBioMedicine, a journal published by The Lancet.

A gain of 5% or more in body mass index (BMI) and waist-to-hip ratio (WHR) within a 5-year period was predicted in 245 699 middle-aged adults from the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) cohort. Polygenic risk scores of BMI and WHR were computed using genetic weights from a UK Biobank cohort. Environmental and genetic models were validated in 29 953 EPIC participants.

Environmental models showed a remarkable predictive ability, correctly distinguishing between adults who would gain 5% or more in BMI and those who would not in almost 70% of cases (area under the curve for BMI [AUC_BMI], 0.69; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.68–0.70) and correctly distinguishing between adults who would gain 5% or more in WHR and those who would not in 75% of cases (AUC_WHR, 0.75; 95% CI, 0.74–0.77). The predictive ability did not improve when polygenic risk scores were added to environmental models. However, polygenic risk scores of BMI showed some predictive ability for BMI gain in early adulthood (AUC, 0.60–0.62).

Whereas environmental factors play an important role in adiposity gain in mid-late adulthood, genetic predisposition to adiposity may play a robust role in predicting adiposity gain in early adulthood rather than mid-late adulthood.

Peruchet-Noray L, Dimou N, Cordova R, Fontvieille E, Jansana A, Gan Q, et al.
Nature or nurture: genetic and environmental predictors of adiposity gain in adults
eBioMedicine. Published online 16 December 2024;
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ebiom.2024.105510

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